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Assaad, R, El-Adaway, I H and Abotaleb, I S (2020) Predicting Project Performance in the Construction Industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Chan, A P C, Chiang, Y, Wong, F K, Liang, S and Abidoye, F A (2020) Work–Life Balance for Construction Manual Workers. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Firouzi, A and Khayyati, M (2020) Bayesian Updating of Copula-Based Probabilistic Project-Duration Model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: Project management; Earned value; Copula; Metropolis-Hastings algorithm; Bayesian updating; Monte Carlo simulation;
- ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001822
- Abstract:
This paper presents a generic copula-based method for accurate prediction of probabilistic time performance of projects. The proposed stepwise method first collates all uncertainties of the project activities and propagates them using a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) in cumulative progress S-curves and commercial project risk analysis software. By fitting the beta distribution function to every normalized simulated progress curve, the corresponding parameters of the so-called Beta-S model can be calculated and the best-fit marginal distribution functions of these parameters, including project completion time, and the correlation matrix can be established. In an innovative approach, a multivariate copula function then is employed to bind the marginal distribution function of these random variables together and produce their prior joint probability distribution as a single closed-form function. The merit of this copula-based function is that it alleviates the incorrect assumption of the independence of random variables in the Beta-S model. The actual progress data of the project are used for efficient Bayesian updating of the model by means of the Metropolis-Hastings (M-H) algorithm. The applicability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated on a project, and it is shown to outperform the existing probabilistic model with independent variables and the earned schedule method as a deterministic method.
Gao, N and Touran, A (2020) Cost Overruns and Formal Risk Assessment Program in US Rail Transit Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Hacker, M E, Kaminsky, J, Faust, K M and Rauch, S (2020) Regulatory Enforcement Approaches for Mass Population Displacement. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Hasanzadeh, S, de la Garza, J M and Geller, E S (2020) Latent Effect of Safety Interventions. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Hu, Q, Bai, Y, He, L, Cai, Q, Tang, S, Ma, G, Tan, J and Liang, B (2020) Intelligent Framework for Worker-Machine Safety Assessment. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Hua, Y, He, J, Gong, J and Zhao, J (2020) Hazardous Area Risk-Based Evacuation Simulation and Analysis of Building Construction Sites. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Krechowicz, M (2020) Comprehensive Risk Management in Horizontal Directional Drilling Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Liu, C, AbouRizk, S, Morley, D and Lei, Z (2020) Data-Driven Simulation-Based Analytics for Heavy Equipment Life-Cycle Cost. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Liu, J and Lu, M (2020) Synchronized Optimization of Various Management-Function Schedules in a Multiproject Environment: Case Study of Planning Steel Girder Fabrication Projects in Bridge Construction. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Lu, W, Xu, J and Söderlund, J (2020) Exploring the Effects of Building Information Modeling on Projects: Longitudinal Social Network Analysis. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Martínez-Rocamora, A, García-Alvarado, R, Casanova-Medina, E, González-Böhme, L F and Auat-Cheein, F (2020) Parametric Programming of 3D Printed Curved Walls for Cost-Efficient Building Design. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Navon, R (2020) The Last Lecture: The Need for Civil Engineering Education to Stimulate Thinking Instead of Only Teaching. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Nguyen, P H D, Tran, D and Lines, B C (2020) Fuzzy Set Theory Approach to Classify Highway Project Characteristics for Delivery Selection. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Okonkwo, P N and Wium, J (2020) Health and Safety Management Systems within Construction Contractor Organizations: Case Study of South Africa. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Pan, M and Pan, W (2020) Understanding the Determinants of Construction Robot Adoption: Perspective of Building Contractors. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Raoufi, M and Fayek, A R (2020) Fuzzy Monte Carlo Agent-Based Simulation of Construction Crew Performance. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Song, M H and Fischer, M (2020) Generating a Daily Bill of Materials at Level of Development 400 Using the Smallest Workface Boundary. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Tomczak, M and JaÅ›kowski, P (2020) New Approach to Improve General Contractor Crew’s Work Continuity in Repetitive Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Wondimu, P A, Klakegg, O J, Lohne, J and Lædre, O (2020) Experiences with Best-Value Procurement in Norway and the Netherlands. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Yu, T, Liang, X and Wang, Y (2020) Factors Affecting the Utilization of Big Data in Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).
Zhang, X, Li, Y and Wu, D (2020) Developing an Underground Utility Occupation Index for Efficient Urban Utilities Planning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(05).